You can see then, that the third person has a 1/2 chance he will have to draw and a 1/2 chance of drawing the card. 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4
And the last person has a 1/4 chance he will have to draw and a 1/1 chance he will draw the card. 1/4 x 1/1 = 1/4
Yeah, so the only way they could rig the kill card process would be 1) leaving them all blank like they possibly did, or 2) making all the cards kill cards and orchestrating it so that the person they want to draw it has to draw first.
[QUOTE=toenails;410773]thisismyuser, at last someone here who understands the math. People saying they rigged the draw is so laughable.[/QUOTE]
Thanks! I like explaining math haha. It's fun.
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;410796]So the only way they could rig the kill card process would be 1) leaving them all blank like they possibly did, or 2) making all the cards kill cards and orchestrating it so that the person they want to draw it has to draw first.[/QUOTE]
Which I could see them doing but....
players dont have to choose the kill card in the order given (ie jasmine chose the last one, and didn't take the third even though she chose third)
[QUOTE=auldx;410800]Which I could see them doing but....
players dont have to choose the kill card in the order given (ie jasmine chose the last one, and didn't take the third even though she chose third)[/QUOTE]
If all the cards are kill cards it doesn't matter which one they pick. That's why I'm saying that's the only way they could rig it.
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;410767]Okay, I will explain. The first person has a one in four chance. If he selects in then the draw is over. So the second person has a 3/4 chance that he will even have to draw, and a 1/3 chance that he will draw the kill card. 3/4 x 1/3 is 3/12 which is 1/4. They ALL have a 1 in 4 chance.[/QUOTE]
Right, right, I figured when you said it with such conviction that you knew what you were talking about. My combinations/permutations/probability stuff is rusty. I stand corrected.
[QUOTE=JL81790;410809]Right, right, I figured when you said it with such conviction that you knew what you were talking about. My combinations/permutations/probability stuff is rusty. I stand corrected.[/QUOTE]
It's an easy mistake to make. I just knew instinctively from so many math classes that it was wrong but I had to think about it for a second to get the explanation out. It's somewhat counterintuitive.
[QUOTE=Fresh Meat;410652]Even then, unless there is any proof on your end (and considering no castmember has even mentioned anything about this) there really is no argument here.[/QUOTE]
This is your argument? Of course the cast members are not going to say anything...its probably in their contracts and they would be sued by BMP if they did. Let's try to use our brains please.
[QUOTE=toenails;410773]thisismyuser, at last someone here who understands the math. People saying they rigged the draw is so laughable.[/QUOTE]
the rig it by deciding the order...the 3rd or 4th person is absolutely screwed
This is once again a situation where people are taking their personal dislike of Johnny Bananas and blaming everything on the show for it. Darrell won 4 times in a row. Does that mean production rigged everything for him to win too?
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;410834]the rig it by deciding the order...the 3rd or 4th person is absolutely screwed[/QUOTE]
Read thisismyuser's explanation of the math. Educate yourself.
[QUOTE=toenails;410838]This is once again a situation where people are taking their personal dislike of Johnny Bananas and blaming everything on the show for it. Darrell won 4 times in a row. Does that mean production rigged everything for him to win too?[/QUOTE]
Darrell is ten times the athlete Bananas ever way..he would kill Johnny in a one on one, so this argument holds no weight either
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;410834]the rig it by deciding the order...the 3rd or 4th person is absolutely screwed[/QUOTE]
No they're not. Did you see my explanation on the previous page. It doesn't matter the order, everybody in the draw has an equal chance of getting the kill card.
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;410841]No they're not. Did you see my explanation on the previous page. It doesn't matter the order, everybody in the draw has an equal chance of getting the kill card.[/QUOTE]
disagree with it simple as that
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;410843]disagree with it simple as that[/QUOTE]
I mean you can't disagree with math but whatever.
Edit: Okay I can't leave this alone I have to try. Just think about it logically. If there's four people in the draw, you say person 3 and 4 are screwed. But think about it, by the time it gets to them, there is already a chance that the kill card has been selected by 1 or 2, right?
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;410843]disagree with it simple as that[/QUOTE]
Hahahahahahahahahaha this kid literally says he [I][B][U]disagrees with math[/U][/B][/I]. I am dying of laughter right now. :highly_amused:
Nemesis, maybe this is where the confusion is. If you are the last two standing in the draw, at that POINT you are screwed. That's because everybody else has already gotten their blank card, so it's more likely that you will be the one ending up with the kill card. It would be the same if four people were given a card (one was a kill card) at the same time. All four have the same chance of getting the kill card. But if they turn their cards over one at a time, it's the same situation. If you get down to the last two, you have a higher chance obviously of being the one who got the kill card.
And sorry for anyone sick of hearing this.
[QUOTE=toenails;410838]This is once again a situation where people are taking their personal dislike of Johnny Bananas and blaming everything on the show for it. Darrell won 4 times in a row. Does that mean production rigged everything for him to win too?[/QUOTE]
Darrell is not as Popular as Backpack. So it wouldn't make sense to rig stuff for him.
And I'm the only one who's really saying that they rig if for him so what are you even talking about?
The only instance where I can see that production helped Johnny was the final on Rivals 1; to counterbalance that, he also got screwed by production on Cutthroat. But other than that he's done everything fair and square.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;410834]the rig it by deciding the order...the 3rd or 4th person is absolutely screwed[/QUOTE]
They don't rig it you dumb dumb, Cara stated that they draw names out of a hat.
[QUOTE=JayTee;410909]They don't rig it you dumb dumb, Cara stated that they draw names out of a hat.[/QUOTE]
They might as well let them go in any order they want since the order is meaningless and doesn't affect anything.
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;410911]They might as well let them go in any order they want since the order is meaningless and doesn't affect anything.[/QUOTE]
I would always be racing to get there first if that were the case lol statistically speaking if you're up first you're practically safe. If you're the 3rd or 4th guy then you're dunzo.
[QUOTE=JayTee;410914]I would always be racing to get there first if that were the case lol statistically speaking if you're up first you're practically safe. If you're the 3rd or 4th guy then you're dunzo.[/QUOTE]
Thisismyuser provided a mathematical explanation a couple pages back on why every person has the same chance of picking the kill card:
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;410767]Okay, I will explain. The first person has a one in four chance. If he selects in then the draw is over. So the second person has a 3/4 chance that he will even have to draw, and a 1/3 chance that he will draw the kill card. 3/4 x 1/3 is 3/12 which is 1/4. They ALL have a 1 in 4 chance.[/QUOTE]
Wanna know how to win The Draw? Memorize the pattern on the back of both kill cards since they probably only have two. The wood has different stained looks on each, which is natural, so if you memorize both, you never go in
I wonder if production have manipulated who gets the kill card by telling certain cast members which card not to pick. Since they have been sneaky in the past, it really wouldn't surprise me.
[QUOTE=PinkRose;410926]I wonder if production have manipulated who gets the kill card by telling certain cast members which card not to pick. Since they have been sneaky in the past, it really wouldn't surprise me.[/QUOTE]
Nah not really but if they really did want to manipulate the draw, why did they not in this episode? Jasmine vs Laurel? They wouild have rigged it so, say aneesa went in
[QUOTE=PinkRose;410926]I wonder if production have manipulated who gets the kill card by telling certain cast members which card not to pick. Since they have been sneaky in the past, it really wouldn't surprise me.[/QUOTE]
I wouldn't be surprised either.
What is your guys' stance on picking your team based on political ties over competitive?
Would you pick allies on your team to control votes if you win? Would you not pick strong competitors on your team to prevent going against them in the draw? Would you not pick allies so you would have not have votes for elimination?
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