[QUOTE=JayTee;411140]But it's still a higher percentage than everyone else which is why I would prefer to go 1st than have it any other way. Thank you for clarifying that there is a bigger percentage of not getting the killcard when going 1st based on what we've seen so far.[/QUOTE]
JayTee you have to be trolling us right now.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411145]Based on what we've seen on FA, you have a slightly higher chance of not drawing the killcard if you go first.[/QUOTE]
Wtf??! What has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future. All you can say from that is what has happened--it does not affect the chance of future draws. Is this real life right now.
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;411321]Wtf??! [B]What has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future.[/B] All you can say from that is what has happened--it does not affect the chance of future draws. Is this real life right now.[/QUOTE]
People don't understand probability.
[QUOTE=TheCloser;411315]Everyone who pulled kill card were last pick, editing my friend.[/QUOTE]
No, no you can't be serious right now. Are you serious.
This is really not that hard.
To make things clear, everyone has a 1/4 chance to pull the kill card, right?
I've been trying to follow this conversation, and it's laughable entertainment at best.
FOR THE LAST TIME. Assume there are 6 people in the draw. Everyone in this draw has a 1/6 chance of going into elimination.
First person: has a 1/1 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/6 chance that they will get the kill card. 1/1 x 1/6 = 1/6
Second person: has a 5/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/5 chance that they will get the kill card. 5/6 x 1/5 = 5/30 = 1/6
Third person: has a 4/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/4 chance that they will get the kill card. 4/6 x 1/4 = 4/24 = 1/6
Fourth person: has a 3/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/3 chance that they will get the kill card. 3/6 x 1/3 = 3/18 = 1/6
Fifth person: has a 2/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/2 chance that they will get the kill card. 2/6 x 1/2 = 2/12 = 1/6
Sixth person: has a 1/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/1 chance that they will get the kill card. 1/6 x 1/1 = 1/6
[QUOTE=ItalianBeats;411329]To make things clear, everyone has a 1/4 chance to pull the kill card, right?
I've been trying to follow this conversation, and it's laughable entertainment at best.[/QUOTE]
If there are 4 people in the draw. If there are 3 it's 1/3, if 5 it's 1/5, etc.
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;411327]No, no you can't be serious right now. Are you serious.
This is really not that hard.[/QUOTE]
I'm so serious right now. Try Google, you poor souls need it.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411303]If the person picking third who has a 50/50 chance of picking the kill card does NOT pick it, then person #4 gets the kill card by default (100%) what the hell don't you get about this????[/QUOTE]
Right, so what you're saying is that the fourth person in the draw will get the kill card 100 percent of the time. LOOK AT WHAT YOU'RE SAYING. You are wrong.
[QUOTE=infamous;411284]If you're basing it on (theoretical) probability, the 1st person is least likely to pull the kill card.
If you're basing it on reality, the second you decide which card to flip there is either a 100% chance it's the kill card or a 0% chance it's the kill card. In which case, you are correct.
You would have to have prior knowledge of what's under the cards for the theoretical situations to matter.[/QUOTE]
Just so you know what you just wrote is complete nonsense.
[QUOTE=TheCloser;411336]I'm so serious right now. Try Google, you poor souls need it.[/QUOTE]
TheCloser, you are wrong. Look at my math post. What don't you understand about it. You are seriously saying that only the fourth person in the draw can get the kill card?
[QUOTE=thisismyuser;411331]FOR THE LAST TIME. Assume there are 6 people in the draw. Everyone in this draw has a 1/6 chance of going into elimination.
First person: has a 1/1 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/6 chance that they will get the kill card. 1/1 x 1/6 = 1/6
Second person: has a 5/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/5 chance that they will get the kill card. 5/6 x 1/5 = 5/30 = 1/6
Third person: has a 4/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/4 chance that they will get the kill card. 4/6 x 1/4 = 4/24 = 1/6
Fourth person: has a 3/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/3 chance that they will get the kill card. 3/6 x 1/3 = 3/18 = 1/6
Fifth person: has a 2/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/2 chance that they will get the kill card. 2/6 x 1/2 = 2/12 = 1/6
Sixth person: has a 1/6 chance that they will have to draw, and a 1/1 chance that they will get the kill card. 1/6 x 1/1 = 1/6[/QUOTE]
[I]
This is obviously a yahoo answers post that you copy and pasted. I said try Google.[/I]
I hope the font hints to you at what Im saying...
[QUOTE=TheCloser;411345][I]
This is obviously a yahoo answers post that you copy and pasted. I said try Google.[/I]
I hope the font hints to you at what Im saying...[/QUOTE]
That you're being really ******* sarcastic and that you get myuser's logic and math?
[QUOTE=TheCloser;411345][I]
This is obviously a yahoo answers post that you copy and pasted. I said try Google.[/I]
I hope the font hints to you at what Im saying...[/QUOTE]
TheCloser, I did not copy and paste that, I wrote it out. I wrote out one yesterday for a draw of 4 people. If you are serious right now, I am beyond confused. You are literally trying to deny math. What is it you want me to 'google'?
Edit: um if you're not being serious, sorry. I can't tell because there's at least three other people in here seriously arguing the same case.
I'm not serious, sorry thought it was obvious from the start but people were really pissed off about it, so I continued. It was my entertainment for the night.
[QUOTE=TheCloser;411349]I'm not serious, sorry thought it was obvious from the start but people were really pissed off about it, so I continued. It was my entertainment for the night.[/QUOTE]
My apologies for coming off abrasive. I just saw your "editing" post, and yes, full sarcasm mode was on.
[QUOTE=TheCloser;411349]I'm not serious, sorry thought it was obvious from the start but people were really pissed off about it, so I continued. It was my entertainment for the night.[/QUOTE]
Yeah. Sorry. I thought you were serious obviously.
Apparently you have found my trolling weakness. Deny basic math and insist that you're right whilst telling me to google it, will send me into a meltdown. Hahaha. I was like seconds away from starting to insult people.
And infamous I think I misunderstood your post, sorry to you too.
[QUOTE=kvm1977;411311]This is math not an opinion. If you don't understand math that's fine but then listen to those that do.
If you don't grasp this stop making comments about someone else being right that doesn't grasp this
Agree to disagree regarding "facts" not opinion...sigh.
"rude immature potshots" means you know you're wrong but you can't simply own it. You know you were wrong--just own it.[/QUOTE]
you are the one with the incorrect math and logic, then calling everyone stupid who is telling you that its wrong. are you even 18 years old yet??
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411355]you are the one with the incorrect math and logic, then calling everyone stupid who is telling you that its wrong. are you even 18 years old yet??[/QUOTE]
IIRC, kvm is a lawyer or something along those lines, so I'm hoping he (or she) is at least 18.
[QUOTE=ItalianBeats;411360]IIRC, kvm is a lawyer or something along those lines, so I'm hoping he (or she) is at least 18.[/QUOTE]
I'm going to take a stab in the dark and guess 1977 is his birth year
[QUOTE=ItalianBeats;411360]IIRC, kvm is a lawyer or something along those lines, so I'm hoping he (or she) is at least 18.[/QUOTE]
he s/he is a lawyer then wtf are they doing on a reality tv forum? go get a criminal out of jail or sue a million dollar corporation or something
note: yes I'm being sarcastic
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411362]he s/he is a lawyer then wtf are they doing on a reality tv forum? go get a criminal out of jail or sue a million dollar corporation or something
note: yes I'm being sarcastic[/QUOTE]
All sarcasm aside, and again IIRC, I remember kvm saying that he is only around during the nighttime.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411362]he s/he is a lawyer then wtf are they doing on a reality tv forum? go get a criminal out of jail or sue a million dollar corporation or something
note: yes I'm being sarcastic[/QUOTE]
You weren't being serious about the math either? Wow. I have somewhat overreacted here.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411355]you are the one with the incorrect math and logic, then calling everyone stupid who is telling you that its wrong. are you even 18 years old yet??[/QUOTE]
35, Ivy League graduate (Penn), lawyer...only post at night when I have some free time and the kids/wife are sleeping.
I know a few things...I know stupid when I read it.
Oh and being intelligent doesn't mean one can't enjoy the simple things like reality TV
[QUOTE=kvm1977;411365]35, Ivy League graduate (Penn), lawyer...only post at night when I have some free time and the kids/wife are sleeping.
I know a few things...I know stupid when I read it.
Oh and being intelligent doesn't mean one can't enjoy the simple things like reality TV[/QUOTE]
I don't care if you are a lawyer (although now it makes sense) you cannot talk down to people and expect them not to react. I have seen you do it several times already and I'm not somebody who would let it slide.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411368]I don't care if you are a lawyer (although now it makes sense) you cannot talk down to people and expect them not to react. I have seen you do it several times already and I'm not somebody who would let it slide.[/QUOTE]
You can react however you want. I couldn't care less what you "let slide". Don't try to argue something you don't understand. You're dead wrong regarding the odds--accept that. By fighting back you only solidify anything negative thing I may have said about you. The math was broken down by countless people--it can not be debated.
I don't tolerate stupidity--plain & simple. Notice with JayTee I even stated originally that they were smarter than that--then s/he proved me wrong.
Have a good night--think before you post--accept there's people that know more than you about certain things.
Let's not start another argument about this before kvm has a heart attack. He has a law firm to run!
Bottom line is you can argue all you want but I'll still always prefer to draw first then draw 2nd 3rd 4th etc... any day of the week based on what we've seen so far. And I hardly doubt they make cast members re-draw, or else we would have heard complaints or at least some hint that they were doing this from the cast.
So this week and the next and next I'm willing to bet whoever goes first won't draw a kill card and in the event that they do, at the end of the season, I'll total up who got the kill card the most and those that went first will always have the least amount of times of drawing the kill card. Just wait and watch ;)
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