Are You The One

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[QUOTE=asdasd9999;391821]There is a 190 combinations. Math is off. Formula is n! divided by (n-r)! times (r!). Still very hard to do. With 5 couples confirmed matches the odds are still 45 to 1 without the lights.[/QUOTE] Your math is bogus. Just getting the first 3 pairs right is 1 chance in 720. Before the truth booth was in play, the first person would have a 1 in 10 chance, and if they select right the second person has a 1 in 9 chance, and if they select right the third person has a 1 in 8 chance, etc. That's 10! combinations. Now with 2 couples confirmed to NOT be matches by the truth booth it becomes something like 1 in 9x8x8x7x6x5x4x3x2. Still nearly 3 million combinations. Even though the lights told them they have 4 couples right this time, the odds of correctly identifying which 4 are right would be 1 in (4/10) x (3/9) x (2/8) x (1/7) = 1 in 210. Although 4 out of 10 is a good start I'd be shocked if they can somehow overcome these odds. Not to mention they already spoiled from the beginning that the game lasts at least until Day 41, which implies they used most if not all 10 of their chances.
For anyone who finds this math difficult to follow, you should always start small and work your way up. If there are 2 guys and 2 girls we can pair up 2 ways. That's 2! or 2x1. If there are 3 guys and 3 girls we can pair up 6 ways. That's 3! or 3x2x1. If anyone wants to challenge me and claim there are less than 6 ways to pair up 3 couples, have at it! Eventually we work our way up to the scenario on the show which is 10 guys and 10 girls. That's 10! or 10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1.
I've been thinking about what the best possible strategy would be given there's a heavy amount of math involved. I think the best strategy (at least from a mathematical perspective) is to use the truth booth to identify correct matches from the episodes they got the most lights (which right now is Episode 2), while using the matchup to try to identify all 10 matches before trying to put them together. This means that EVERYONE should choose NEW partners for the matchup EVERY WEEK until they see all 10 lights. If they follow this strategy (I don't expect them to) they could (hopefully) see all 10 lights by the 4th or 5th episode and then they can eliminate 50 to 60 percent of the possibilities. All of the sudden everyone will be able to say "My match is one of 4 or 5 people" rather than "My match is one of 9 or 10". If they don't follow this strategy they're almost certainly going to get lost in a sea of millions of combinations.
Ep. 3 sneak peek! <a href="http://www.mtv.com/ontv/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">MTV Shows</a>
Oh my god!! It's getting intense!
Yess get her nia
I wish they would all think a little more before they go into the match up ceremony. They could just switch two of the couples from the second episode and have everyone else keep the same partner from that episode. Then depending on how the number of lights changed, they would actually figure something out. Best case scenario 6 or 2 lights would mean they had figured out two perfect matches.
[QUOTE=cluttered;392194]I wish they would all think a little more before they go into the match up ceremony. They could just switch two of the couples from the second episode and have everyone else keep the same partner from that episode. Then depending on how the number of lights changed, they would actually figure something out. Best case scenario 6 or 2 lights would mean they had figured out two perfect matches.[/QUOTE] This is literally the most frustrating part of the show. Brittany and Paige had some good strategic thinking this episode, but it's like they're not even trying!!! It's so infuriating!! There's no logic! Simone is crazy. I was CRACKING UP. What kind of logic is "I'mma beat your ***, step over here so I can beat you up" Like yes, let me go over to you so that you can, as you proclaim, beat me up. Adam and Brittany's relationship is the weirdest thing I've ever seen. One minute: "She's psycho, get her away from me" and the next they're having sex like "WHO'S THE BOSS?! YEAH THAT'S RIGHT!" (I was literally laughing SO HARD when they showed that)
[QUOTE=Youssarian;392197]Adam and Brittany's relationship is the weirdest thing I've ever seen. One minute: "She's psycho, get her away from me" and the next they're having sex like "WHO'S THE BOSS?! YEAH THAT'S RIGHT!" (I was literally laughing SO HARD when they showed that)[/QUOTE] Yeah, if the show didn't have moments like that I'd be too frustrated by their lack of thought to actually watch. They have almost no chance of money with the way they're going.
[QUOTE=Youssarian;392197]This is literally the most frustrating part of the show. Brittany and Paige had some good strategic thinking this episode, but it's like they're not even trying!!! It's so infuriating!! There's no logic! Simone is crazy. I was CRACKING UP. What kind of logic is "I'mma beat your ***, step over here so I can beat you up" Like yes, let me go over to you so that you can, as you proclaim, beat me up. Adam and Brittany's relationship is the weirdest thing I've ever seen. One minute: "She's psycho, get her away from me" and the next they're having sex like "WHO'S THE BOSS?! YEAH THAT'S RIGHT!" (I was literally laughing SO HARD when they showed that)[/QUOTE] Well I think Jacy's the more crazy one for actually walking to Simone only to turn around and walk back, then jump all crazy when the guys start holding her. I don't see how they're gonna figure this game out. They haven't wasted a truth booth yet so that's good.
[QUOTE=cluttered;392194]I wish they would all think a little more before they go into the match up ceremony. They could just switch two of the couples from the second episode and have everyone else keep the same partner from that episode. Then depending on how the number of lights changed, they would actually figure something out. Best case scenario 6 or 2 lights would mean they had figured out two perfect matches.[/QUOTE] This strategy is too logical for this group of people. Some of these people (Chris T. and Shanley come to mind though there are certainly other offenders) do not seem to realize that this is actually a game show with money on the line. Why on earth they ever thought it would be smart to just completely reshuffle the deck and have all different couples last week, I have no idea. They are definitely not utilizing the match-up ceremony properly and what frustrates me the most is that they seem to be relying on luck, hoping at each ceremony that they will just magically have all 10 out of 10 matches.
If only 1 perfect match is made at the end of the series, does that match split the 1m, or do all of them have to find their match?
[QUOTE=TwoStrikes;392488]If only 1 perfect match is made at the end of the series, does that match split the 1m, or do all of them have to find their match?[/QUOTE] I believe everyone has to find their match.
I think what we're seeing play out now is the numbers game I warned about earlier that is stacked against the cast. 0 for 3 in the truth booth may seem like bad luck but if they were just randomly guessing there was a 73% chance that would happen. They also completely wasted the matchup this week. By selecting 5 new couples and 5 old ones and only 2 lights, this tells them nothing. But even with a smarter strategy I don't see any way of pulling it off. I did figure out that if they could get 8 lights by the 6th matchup, they could figure out which 2 couples are wrong in the next 4 episodes with proper use of the truth booth and matchup. But the hard part is - how the heck do they get to 8 lights in 6 (or even 9 episodes)? It seems mathematically impossible to get that many right. Heck, I'd be surprised if they can even get 6 lights in 1 matchup the way things are going.
Have feeling this cast is too dumb to figure it out. Have a feeling they are able to match up Jessica and Dillan also Ethan and Amber based on the exes. Jessica because she is one of two girls nobody wants to be with (other being Coleysia) and Dillan is boring (basing that off of him never getting TV time). Seems like production gave them that match to get them out of the house. No clue just guessing off of the preview where Jessica prays he is not her match while they both go to the truth booth. So it will be 88 to 1 then if they get Ethan and Amber next episode 78 to 1 (they eliminated 1 chance by going in the truth booth). Also can someone tell me when they see Joey Dillon. I swear I haven't seen that guy since the first episode not counting the choosing partners ceremony. To Jessica, Sweetheart you're just as boring as Dillan if not more. You haven't had sex in 4 years living in Miami and you're a female. Sincerely, Reality Show Addict Prediction of matches Chris S and Brittany Ethan and Amber John and Jacy Dillan and Jessica Ryan T and Paige Rest have no clue
[QUOTE=asdasd9999;392507]Have feeling this cast is too dumb to figure it out. Have a feeling they are able to match up Jessica and Dillan also Ethan and Amber based on the exes. Jessica because she is one of two girls nobody wants to be with (other being Coleysia) and Dillan is boring (basing that off of him never getting TV time). Seems like production gave them that match to get them out of the house. No clue just guessing off of the preview where Jessica prays he is not her match while they both go to the truth booth. So it will be 88 to 1 then if they get Ethan and Amber next episode 78 to 1 (they eliminated 1 chance by going in the truth booth). [B]Also can someone tell me when they see Joey Dillon[/B]. I swear I haven't seen that guy since the first episode not counting the choosing partners ceremony. To Jessica, Sweetheart you're just as boring as Dillan if not more. You haven't had sex in 4 years living in Miami and you're a female. Sincerely, Reality Show Addict Prediction of matches Chris S and Brittany Ethan and Amber John and Jacy Dillan and Jessica Ryan T and Paige Rest have no clue[/QUOTE] The thing is, I was able to deduce Jessica and Dillan being matches just based off their MTV blurbs. Both are born again virgins and that's kind of a huge lifestyle commitment that doesn't seem to at all fit in with most of the other people on this show. It makes me wonder what the heck these people talk about when they are trying to guess at a match??? Because if there were only 2 born again virgins on the cast, one male and one female, that would be a very good candidate couple for the truth booth. Otherwise, if there match were anyone else, are they supposed to convert someone into abstaining with them? Good luck with that. LOL about Joey. There are a few people that when they do the match up ceremony I'm just kind of like, who the heck is that and were they there this whole time??? Joey, Ashleigh (I was seriously unaware there was a girl named Ashleigh on this show until last episode), even Coleysia (when they showed her talking to Dillan this episode, it took me a minute to figure out who it was).
[QUOTE=TwoStrikes;392488]If only 1 perfect match is made at the end of the series, does that match split the 1m, or do all of them have to find their match?[/QUOTE] I was a little confused by this too, but I'm under the impression they need to get all 10/10 matches in order to split the money. Which is kind of bogus because they're portraying this as the highest prize ever given out on MTV when really we're talking about $50k per person. Contestants on the Challenge get more prize money and at least there, someone is guaranteed to win.
[QUOTE=jellybean89;392534]The thing is, I was able to deduce Jessica and Dillan being matches just based off their MTV blurbs. Both are born again virgins and that's kind of a huge lifestyle commitment that doesn't seem to at all fit in with most of the other people on this show. It makes me wonder what the heck these people talk about when they are trying to guess at a match??? Because if there were only 2 born again virgins on the cast, one male and one female, that would be a very good candidate couple for the truth booth. Otherwise, if there match were anyone else, are they supposed to convert someone into abstaining with them? Good luck with that. LOL about Joey. There are a few people that when they do the match up ceremony I'm just kind of like, who the heck is that and were they there this whole time??? Joey, Ashleigh (I was seriously unaware there was a girl named Ashleigh on this show until last episode), even Coleysia (when they showed her talking to Dillan this episode, it took me a minute to figure out who it was).[/QUOTE] Meant 89 and 79 to 1 chance. Didn't read the cast member bios, but it all makes sense. Brittany and Chris S come from the same NY scene so that is why they will be a match. I really don't think these relationship expert/matches are that complicated. I think they're making this way too complicated. Similar locations or weird lifestyle choices that are the same means you're probably a match. Amber/Ethan both from the South and talk about it often.
I feel like producers are feeding them information to get the right match, but the cast is too stupid. So now they're going to do two truth booths. I also cannot stand the date challenges. They really add nothing to the show. So many better ideas than the date challenges. Even with the ex girlfriends it wasn't interesting. Wow most people in the house have sex with their exes. Call the NY Post because that information isn't common!!! Exes revealed very little, because they weren't put on the spot. This show is produced horribly.
Not surprised. This was a dumb show to begin with.
WOW how desperate and pathetic of Dre... That's really annoying to see.. anyways I actually loved this episode and this show is still going strong for me. I love the storylines
UNLIKE the TMZ comments I do think most people confuse the difference between scripted tv and set up situations. This show is not scripted and I wish people would stop automatically dogging all reality shows as fake. &gt;_&gt;
People confuse edited with fake
This people are so dumb. Here are my couples predictions: Ethan and Amber (I got frustrated when she and Adam started flirting) Dillon and Coleysia Joey and Brittany Ryan and Kayla John and Jacy Adam and Jessica Wes and Paige Dre and Simone Chris T. and Ashleigh Chris S. and Shanley
Everyone should check the clues on MTV. they're pretty helpful for finding the perfect matches.

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