Are You The One

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[QUOTE=asdasd9999;393157]Chris S and Paige cannot be a match. Amber/Ethan and Dillan/Coleysia are two perfect matches that accounted for the two lights in episode 3. Pretty sure in episode 2 don't have it but if Chris T and Paige were a match the lights reflect that. You will be able to see in episode 2 if it is John/Jacy or Chris T/Paige is the perfect match.[/QUOTE] I agree I think that Paige and Chris T are a match. If you pay close attention to the trailer you can tell that those two are in the truth booth by everyone's reactions especially Chris S and Shanley. I think we'll be seeing that next episode.
After looking closely at the match up ceremonies, this is how I think are the perfect matches: Adam and Shanley Joey and Brittany Ethan and Amber Wes and Kayla Chris T. and Paige John and Ashleigh Dillon and Coleysia Ryan and Jessica Chris S. and Jacy Dre and Simone I'm not so sure about Ryan/Jessica and Chris S. and Jacy. I feel they are interchangeable.
[QUOTE=ztrigger;392946]I was enticed by the math problem behind this show, so I started keeping track of the possible combinations on the [URL="http://areuthe.blogspot.com/"]Are You The One? Math[/URL] blog. Surprisingly they are down to 124 possibilities left! But they seem to have gotten to the point where their guesses are going to really need to be educated to keep eliminating questions going forward. I don't know what the optimal strategy would be, though.[/QUOTE] Ztrigger, I'm fascinated by the math too. So you're telling us that after 6 truth booths and 5 matchups, 10! permutations (3,628,800 for those who don't know this) have been reduced to only 24 possible combinations. Assuming your calculations are correct (I haven't done anything to verify them) they are on pace to narrowing this down to only one possibility in the coming 5 episodes (perhaps sooner than that). There's only one problem with that though. The cast doesn't have calculators or math text books, and they certainly don't have computers. We've seen at least in one episode people writing down possibilities on paper. So the real question is, using nothing more than paper and pencil, and given at least 41 days in the house (as revealed in first episode), what is the chance of them piecing the puzzle together? I think this would be very difficult, even if one or two if them is a math whiz (and I'm not sure any of them are).
I suggested earlier in the thread that a good strategy could be to take different people for the matchup each week (which was abandoned after week 2) in the hopes they can see all 10 lights without repeating combinations. If they could've done that in 4 or 5 episodes they could eliminate all pairings not tried in those episodes (and they wouldn't need a computer or complex formula for that either). If it instead took them 7 or 8 episodes to get all 10 lights than they couldn't have won the game anyway up to that point without finding the final matches. And I suggested for the truth booth taking couples from their most successful matchups. While at least one guy suggested going back to choosing different people in episode 4 the group didn't agree on that. I also suggested earlier up thread that to attempt a problem like this (using pencil and paper rather than a computer) and try to devise a strategy you have to start small. Think about the optimal strategy for paring up 3 couples, then for 4 couples, and then work your way up. If anyone in the house is smart enough to have attempted to do this than they would at least understand the nature of the problem and what they're up against. From my own attempts at working on this I believe the math is still very long against them unless they can get at least 8 lights right in one matchup. Then they can move on to trying to figure out which 2 are wrong. While it was encouraging to see them get 5 right this week (4 out of 9 plus one confirmed), I still think it's false hope. I'll be surprised if they keep letting them send 2 couples to the truth booth (I think they only did that to get them started since they weren't progressing). Even if they see 7 lights right in one matchup, I still think it's too many combinations to figure out which 3 are wrong in only a few episodes. And even if they do somehow get 8 lights in episode 8 or 9 it will be difficult.
Here's another way of thinking about it: Suppose after 11 truth booths and 9 matchups the cast has 4 confirmed matches. Is there enough information to figure out the solution with pencil and paper for the final matchup? Is that realistic? What about having only 3 confirmed matches after 11 truth booths and 9 matchups? Is there enough information then to solve it for the final matchup?
I see that of the 7 most likely couples according to Ztrigger's calculations, 5 of them were matched up during both episodes 2 and 5 (the most successful matchups). If the cast were to realize that they should only send couples to the truth booth who were matched up in both episodes 2 and 5, they'd have a good chance of 3 more successful truth booths out of 5. But would 4 confirmed matches be enough to be able to use brute force calculations (taking into account results of every matchup and truth booth) with pencil and paper? And even if so, would the cast even realize that brute force calculations could be done realistically? I'm still dubious about that.
mark, I'm not so certain they'll narrow it down to one possibility. The truth booths are now of diminishing value. They can send any one of 76 pairings to the truth booth (excluding the 19 involving either Coleysia and Dillan + the 5 others already sent) - when you consider that there are only 24 remaining combinations, they're going to have to be really educated guesses to start cutting down possibilities. And the more similar the matchup ceremony groups are to previous groups, the fewer combinations those are going to eliminate as well. I think you are right that the best thing to do would have been to send truth booths from the most successful episodes. And yeah, there's no way that they could track the exact number of remaining possibilities by hand.
Ztrigger, If you plug in to your program another 5 hypothetical truth booths and 4 hypothetical matchups, how many possibilities do you end up with? It would be interesting to simulate it a few times the way people would do for a football game. Do some strategies narrow it down to one while others narrow it down to 10 for instance? I was surprised looking at your data that a number of pairings can already be ruled out in addition to the ones rejected by the truth booth.
Here was my thinking regarding brute force. Assuming they're doing proper record keeping of all matchups and truth booths, if they can confirm 5 pairings in the truth booth (unlikely at this point), there are only 120 combinations left for the remaining 5 couples. Those 120 combinations could be compared against all the known data given sufficient time between the final truth booth and the final matchup. First you eliminate as many as possible using the truth booths that were unsuccessful, then compare to the matchups. If they have only 4 confirmed pairings, there's 720 combinations to track. Given enough time (at least a day) - that might be trackable if one or more of the people still in the house (not already in the honeymoon suite) knows what they are doing. At least they could hopefully find a combination that is still viable for the final matchup given the known data.
For instance it doesn't take long to map out the 24 ways that the digits 1 through 4 can be ordered: 1234 1243 1324 1342 1423 1432 2134 2143 2314 2341 2413 2431 3124 3142 3214 3241 3412 3421 4123 4132 4213 4231 4312 4321 That didn't take more than a minute or two. It would take longer to write out the 120 combinations that the digits 1 thru 5 can be ordered, and longer still to write out the 720 combinations that 1 through 6 can be ordered, but it certainly can be done without repeating combinations when someone understands what they are doing. Each of those 24 combinations I wrote out could represent the different orders that 4 girls could be selected if the guys order remained the same.
[QUOTE=ztrigger;393535]The truth booths are now of diminishing value.[/QUOTE] This depends somewhat on if they keep sending same people to the truth booth or not. If someone is sent a second or third time, they improve the chance of finding a match but it also nullifies that person's earlier trips as far as future value at the end of the game. Dillan was sent twice before he was matched (episode 4 and 5) so there are 77 pairings left to send to the truth booth, rather than 76. Jessica has also been to the truth booth twice now (episode 2 and 4).
If I was in the house, I would sort the data by assigning a letter (A thru H) to guys and a number (0 thru 9) for girls. Here is the known data: Matchup and Result A B C D E F G H I J 2 1 5 3 4 8 7 9 0 6, 2 LIGHTS (H9 is wrong, D3 is right) 8 9 7 5 1 0 2 4 6 3, 4 LIGHTS (D5 is wrong, E1 is wrong) 2 7 9 3 1 0 8 5 6 4, 2 LIGHTS (E1 is wrong, D3 is right) 0 7 1 3 9 2 6 4 2 5, 2 LIGHTS (D3 is right) 8 9 7 3 2 0 5 4 1 6, 5 LIGHTS (D3 is right) Truth Booth and Result C8 No F5 No H9 No D5 No E1 No D3 Yes Once the data has been sorted in an organized fashion like this it would be possible to check hundreds of possible combinations to see if they are still viable without an excessive amount of time.
From the data we see that in: Episode 1, 1 of 8 unknown are correct. Episode 2, 4 of 8 unknown are correct. Episode 3, 1 of 8 unknown are correct. Episode 4, 1 of 9 unknown are correct. Episode 5, 4 of 9 unknown are correct. Following Episode 2, only 2 of the 4 truth booths followed my suggested strategy (to send couples that were together in Episode 2 since it had the best matchup).
[QUOTE=mark3210;393555]If I was in the house, I would sort the data by assigning a letter (A thru H) to guys and a number (0 thru 9) for girls. [/QUOTE] Meant to say A thru J but it's not hard to follow what's going on here. :tennis: Forgot to add that we know since D3 is right, 3 can not be anywhere else. Therefore in Episode 2, J3 is wrong and 4 of 7 unknown are right.
[QUOTE=mark3210;393555] Matchup and Result A B C D E F G H I J 2 1 5 3 4 8 7 9 0 6, 2 LIGHTS (H9 is wrong, D3 is right) 8 9 7 5 1 0 2 4 6 3, 4 LIGHTS (D5 is wrong, E1 is wrong, J3 is wrong) 2 7 9 3 1 0 8 5 6 4, 2 LIGHTS (E1 is wrong, D3 is right) 0 7 1 3 9 2 6 4 2 5, 2 LIGHTS (D3 is right) 8 9 7 3 2 0 5 4 1 6, 5 LIGHTS (D3 is right) [/QUOTE] Looking at my grid, I think F0 or H4 should be sent to the truth booth. Here's why: F0 and H4 are present in both episodes 2 and 5, but each is also present in an episode with only 1 unknown match. If they can pick out one of those pairs, then all other pairings from those weeks can be eliminated. That would be the best result. But even if the truth booth fails, that further narrows down episode 2 from 4 of 7 unknown being right to 4 of 6 unknown being right. The more I analyze this the more I feel the game is winnable if proper strategy is executed. If both F0 and H4 are sent to the truth booth in the next 2 episodes, they are either guaranteed a second perfect match, or else episode 2 narrows down to 4 of 5 unknowns being right. According to Ztrigger's calculations (which would be completely unknown to the cast), F0 is 79.2% likely match while H4 is 75% likely. If both turned out right they could eliminate all wrong pairings from episodes 3 and 4. But I still feel that if both are wrong it would perhaps be an even better result to narrow down episode 2 to only 1 wrong unknown.
For anyone not following I'm using letters and numbers according to names in alphabetical order. F0 = Ethan / Amber H4 = John / Jacy And yes, MTV blog has already revealed one of the perfect matches but I'm pretending not to know that or Ztrigger's calculations when formulating strategy.
F0 would probably yield the most info right now because it repeats in Episodes 2, 3, and 5, while I6 repeats in Episodes 2 and 3. If F0 is right, it not only clears Episode 3 but immediately narrows down Episode 2 to only 5 unknowns because of I6.
I'm going to replace incorrect matches with an X and correct matches with an L. One could also remove column D entirely but I'm going to keep it for now. Matchup and Result 2 1 5 L 4 8 7 X 0 6, (1 of 8) 8 9 7 X X 0 2 4 6 X, (4 of 7) 2 7 9 L X 0 8 5 6 4, (1 of 8) 0 7 1 L 9 2 6 4 2 5, (1 of 9) 8 9 7 L 2 0 5 4 1 6, (4 of 9) Truth Booth and Result C8 No F5 No H9 No D5 No E1 No D3 Yes
Just examining the data some more we can see that other than Dillan (who has been matched), every guy was with at least 3 different girls by the 4th episode. Joey (column G) has kept things moving and is the only one to be with 5 different girls in the matchups by Episode 5. Less than half of the possible pairings have been tried so it's likely a number of them haven't been with their perfect match even once yet. One can also examine the number of times certain pairings repeat and the number of total lights, but it's unclear that those pieces of info help much yet. We see that for the guys not yet matched, they've only seen a total of 11 lights (out of 45 attempts) so far. That's a batting average of .244 for the unmatched players.
I'm so annoyed with Shanley and Chris T. Can't wait for them to get called out tonight.. <a href="http://www.mtv.com/ontv/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">MTV Shows</a>
For what it's worth, of the 77 pairings still possible: 2 have been tried 3 times 6 have been tried 2 times 23 have been tried once 46 have not been attempted 11 lights have been seen Based on the number of lights seen and pairings repeated, anywhere from 6 to 10 guys have been with their perfect match at least once in the matchup.
[QUOTE=TeamLandon;393662]I'm so annoyed with Shanley and Chris T. Can't wait for them to get called out tonight.. [CENTER][FONT=Verdana][URL="http://www.mtv.com/ontv/"]MTV Shows[/URL][/FONT][/CENTER] [/QUOTE] Really? I actually really like them and I think Chris T. is adorable.
[QUOTE=torstar;393682]Really? I actually really like them and I think Chris T. is adorable.[/QUOTE] They know what they signed up for but they're just being stupid and selfish by not even trying to get to know other people. They're messing it up for the rest of the cast.
[QUOTE=TeamLandon;393688]They know what they signed up for but they're just being stupid and selfish by not even trying to get to know other people. They're messing it up for the rest of the cast.[/QUOTE] I disagree because it's not like the rest of the house is really trying to get to know more than one or two people and the rest of the house hasn't been successful. It's not like we're just waiting on those two ya know? Also, I'm already pretty sure who Chris T's match is and he's been paired up with said person at most of the matchup ceremonys. Therefore, he has actually been one of those lights on multiple different occasions contributing to have more matchup success.
[QUOTE=TeamLandon;393688]They know what they signed up for but they're just being stupid and selfish by not even trying to get to know other people. They're messing it up for the rest of the cast.[/QUOTE] Honestly I think the house knows who the matches are. I just have a feeling somehow they found out and they wanted Chris T out of the house for being a loud a-hole. It is the only reasonable explanation. Lost interest in the show and it could all be scripted. I feel like the concept of putting 20 people in the house to find love works, but the game show expect doesn't work. Might be more fun to award the money just to the matches gotten, because then people will just create fake relationships for fun.
I feel a better format for the show is find your perfect match, but you only have two shots at your perfect match, one in the middle and one at the end or you can do one shot at the finale . Both people must correctly choose each other, but if they don't they do not get a share of the $1,000,000. Show would be insane with girls and guys trying to fake relationships. A crew member leaked the perfect matches to the cast or the show is scripted. This show just lacks that hook-up vibe and competitive nature of reality shows. You can have eliminations in my show and challenges to make the show competitive.Show is not a complete idea, but much better than Are You The One. Loved the show at first, but the show became where is my $50,000? Also how does someone married get on a dating show in the 21st century when everything is online?
[QUOTE=asdasd9999;394123]I feel a better format for the show is find your perfect match, but you only have two shots at your perfect match, one in the middle and one at the end or you can do one shot at the finale . Both people must correctly choose each other, but if they don't they do not get a share of the $1,000,000. Show would be insane with girls and guys trying to fake relationships. A crew member leaked the perfect matches to the cast or the show is scripted. This show just lacks that hook-up vibe and competitive nature of reality shows. You can have eliminations in my show and challenges to make the show competitive.Show is not a complete idea, but much better than Are You The One. Loved the show at first, but the show became where is my $50,000? Also how does someone married get on a dating show in the 21st century when everything is online?[/QUOTE] I don't see how you can say it's scripted or they knew the matches beforehand after you watched Shanley's reaction last episode. That did not seem fake to me at all.
Yeah it doesn't seem scripted at all.. and I love this show! The last episode to me is what seemed competitive and sparked up some drama which was a joy to watch :). I'm tuning in for season 2!
That last episode was entertaining as hell! Loved seeing Shanley's reaction to the truth booth! Great to see that the cast is tracking all of the matchups and strategizing (if they weren't they'd have no chance). While 2 confirmed matches is another step in the right direction, there are still 61 possible pairings for the remaining 16. (64 - 3 wrong truth booths since Dillan and Chris T both went twice). Now down to 9 lights seen by the remaining singles. Looking at the data, at least 2 more matches repeat in episodes 2 and 5. That means between 6 and 9 couples have seen their light so far. It's still going to be an uphill battle though to get all 10 matches.
The mid-season trailer is on MTV.com. I think the reason this was posted online but didn't air on TV is because it's a bit spoilerish. Reveals 2 couples who will enter the truth booth and results of 2 matchups.

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